Philippe Giraud, who owns the Atelier de la Pierre in Longny, was one of the stonemasons during the reconstruction. He was giving a talk at the Atelier yesterday about their work.
I have a love/hate relationship with Pais, as I have with London and Nice and other cities I know reasonably well. But Paris is, I think, the ultimate survivor; The Revolution, Napoleon, World Wars, Nazi occupation, Vichy, ex-colonial immigrants, pandemics, and so many more events have come and gone, and not just the Parisien buildings and thoroughfares, but even the people have withstood it all, barely moved in their insouciance and 'sang froid', it seems to me. "Been there, done that, have the beautifully-cut designer T shirt".
I think much the same of French politics. Yes, Macron is in trouble again. Yes, French politics is a mess, with political parties from Communist and virulent anarchist Left to Le Pen's Far Right, end even a few Far Righter than her! Yes, Barnier's government has just collapsed and Macron is desperately hunting for a new PM, or fall guy if you'd prefer.
But this is nothing like American politics. In France, there is proportional representation so any law has to get approval by a majority, with at least 50% objecting to everything. That applies to Macron, but also to Le Pen or Melenchon's far Left. It is that friction, that immovability, that makes France ultimately sane in its centrist path of true representation of the people.
I will also mention that unlike in America, France's huge civil service is set up to run the country whatever the politicians get up to. Their budget is permanent, their roles are apolitical, and their powerful unions make them politically untouchable. This structure is not unusual in Europe, and I will mention that Belgium recently managed 18 months with no government at all, and hardly anyone noticed!
As for Notre Dame..... whatever happens with Macron, I will praise him for his determination and ultimate success in driving forward the restoration and resurrection of Notre Dame, and refusing those that wanted to modernise it, or do it up on the cheap. It has been a remarkable example of harnessing excellent traditional skills from across the country, with exceptional management and historical integrity to bring this incredibly complex project in on time. Few other countries and governments could have managed such an amazing feat, and the French should be very proud. Even as the French on the streets publicly whinge about it!
I am very content to live in France, a genuinely sane and civilised country that often seems embarrassed by it. Probably the safest country in the World right now. And that's why I live here!
i agree with much of what you say here, except your very optimistic forecast for france's political future. the country is facing a potentially greece-level economic disaster, which requires immediate legislative action. they can't cruise à la belge here. and the populist dogs are really at the door. i don't know who is on any centrist bench who can rally enough french people to block the fascists this time. granted there's an eternity between now and the next election, but as things are lined up now, do not count at all on the center holding.
I doubt the centre will hold, and when Macron goes, the next President will be either more Left or more Right, not centre.
But whomever wins a majority still needs to carry enough of the others to pass any laws. Not easy.
The French system is pretty resilient and this is the 5th Republic - many of the faults you see in the American 1st Republic have been resolved over the decades. I may turn out to be wrong, but I suspect the French system of checks and balances, the lower levels of corruption, and the enduring belief in 'public service' that still seems normal in French politics, will endure. Even if Le Pen stays out of jail and gets to lead for a while.
The biggest issue, to me, is the economic action required to keep the country in the EU. Nobody has the politic skills to sell that to the French people.
France IS the EU now that Germany is in recession and has so declined economically and politically.. And Germany can't recover because of its energy situation, and its proximity and vulnerability to the Ukraine war, which is making investors nervous.
I think Brexit was a wake up call to the French, and I really doubt even Le Pen believes she could win a referendum to take France out of the EU. If anything, Le Pen would probably prefer to stay in the EU and build a Right wing power block with Italy too.
I also wonder if Trump's win in America will, like Brexit in Britain, scare the French away from the Far Right. I hope so.
there is no way to stay in the EU without brutal austerity measures. those are simply the facts. and with bad faith populists constantly lying to voters, the french people have incentive to keep deluding themselves even as they face consequences for budgetary indiscipline. foreign investment here? not great. better under macron than before but either far left or far right will likely dismantle what he's done. neither of the extremes has anything remotely plausible to offer, but voters are too irrational these days to put much stock in plausible.
I agree with much of what you say. Here's my take on all this:
All countries now have debt crises because of the crash of 2009, and the terrible mistake of the supposedly 'short term' fix of QE, and then more of the same for a decade, and then MUCH more during Covid. Once the interest rates returned to a more normal 5% it was obvious then all those countries would also have a debt and repayment crisis.
But also there is the long expected (by me at least) crisis of EROEI for energy, that makes fossil fuels less effective in running any of these thirsty and addicted Western economies, at the same time as fossil fuels and energy was diverted into investment into renewables, a major structural shift that will starve investment in everything else for decades. When we add in the increasing costs of the climate damage in each country, and an ageing population used to the good life, then altogether we of course see a debt crisis, a lack of investment, real wages in decline and increasingly disappointed and angry voters.
All the EU countries are in this position, some worse than others, so all have breached the 3% debt limits and no one would ever consider driving out France - it would be the end of the EU.
What is the solution? Things will go on as they are until a major crisis bursts the Everything Bubbles. I suspect that is exactly what Trump plans to do on January 20th or soon after, when his rich friends with the inside nod will know exactly when to short everything on the way down, and buy up everything at 10 cents on the dollar at bottom. I suspect they will do that in Europe and Asia too, and maybe even in China.
That would crash the French economy too. It is inevitable, sooner of later. But here is the thing; France's fundamentals of energy (70% nuclear, 15% hydro etc) and net surplus of food production, and big fishing industry, and nuclear electric powered high speed trains, and the fact that all European road transport crosses France on toll roads, and thousands of small farmers and businesses with practical skilled workforce and products, etc, all mean resilience, solid income and a more grounded recovery.
in 2023, only 11 member states were out of compliance with the growth and stability pact. italy was the worst, along with romania, malta, and a few others. france is right in there though and i can't see it getting any special grace. yes france has those fundamentals you rightly mention, and they're comforting if we're looking at end times scenarios. but they don't matter much until it's france for itself. ie frexit. (and then omg the workforce is going to have to go squid game to compete, compared to how it is now.)
I think some of those other states are hiding their true figures - no country has avoided high debts, not least because of Covid, and no country can avoid the impact of more normal interest rates after a decade of free money.
It may well be that voters in France need a period of brutal education into reality by a period of chaotic rule by the Left or the Right. I recall the first time I lived in France in the late 1980's when Le Pen meant Jean Marie Le Pan, father of Marine, a far right wannabe demagogue with all the rough edges in place, who came too close to winning the Presidency and was rebuffed by a shocked government that conspired to keep him out.
At the time, I lived in Nice on the French Riviera, where the mayor was Jacques Médecin, another far Right and deeply corrupt guy who eventually ran off to Uruguay with Nice's Finance Secretary (a beautiful lady hired by Médecin!) to avoid their arrest for embezzlement. He used to phone all his friends in Nice from Uruguay, who would gather every Friday evening in a local cafe to hear and speak with him, and a couple of Mafia bigwigs would sometimes make an appearance. He was later extradited back to France for trial and imprisonment. On the other hand, he wrote a very good cookbook on Provençal and Niçoise cuisine, so he can't have been all bad! 🙂
But what I am saying is that French politics has always been like this - moments of purpose and apparent clarity, followed by long periods of chaos and crisis. The only good thing is that it isn't as bad as Italy, although now at least people can't say it's not as good as Germany! Here below is the best analysis I have seen of the national French situation by Claire Berlinski, and I agree with every aspect of it.
As for the ultimate crisis scenario, I think it is inevitable and the only question is when. In fact, from a personal point of view, even that last question is refined to "in my lifetime" or "after my lifetime", and even that question has ramifications that mean I am not sure which I'd prefer! 😂
All that said, I will repeat that I think this is ultimately the safest Westernised country (for someone that looks European) to live in during the coming crises, because of those fundamentals. I'm betting my life on it, and would probably do so even if I was 20 years old again.
i agree with her read 100%. i wish she proposed some kind of scenario for the way forward, but i think no one is capable of that right now. i fear what's changed compared to past political crises is the information environment is so polluted thanks to social media and the rise of right wing propaganda networks that the populace--the ultimate arbiter of the future in any democracy--has become completely dysfunctional. i think this is a big difference from past eras. it's very hard to put faith in the ultimate rationality of voters right now. they're not as bad off as america (yet) but the saying that france is merely 10 years late to whatever happens in america may be true once again. if so, buckle up.
The people matter, not a place, though having experienced Notre Dame albeit as an outsider I treasure its art. The shape, the sculpture, the reminder it is of a past.. unlike many popular expressed views, when I visited I was delighted with the Parisians I met.
I found the interior severely oppressive, likely the result of having had a teacher of European history that spared no one..and the moaning shadows that hung in the church when I entered it.
i’m looking forward to seeing its new insides. i have always really loved that building. it is so imposing but architecturally it doesn’t waste the time that it takes.
Philippe Giraud, who owns the Atelier de la Pierre in Longny, was one of the stonemasons during the reconstruction. He was giving a talk at the Atelier yesterday about their work.
J’espère que les agriculteurs en grève apparaissent pour « ce mec »
Good post, thanks for sharing it.
I have a love/hate relationship with Pais, as I have with London and Nice and other cities I know reasonably well. But Paris is, I think, the ultimate survivor; The Revolution, Napoleon, World Wars, Nazi occupation, Vichy, ex-colonial immigrants, pandemics, and so many more events have come and gone, and not just the Parisien buildings and thoroughfares, but even the people have withstood it all, barely moved in their insouciance and 'sang froid', it seems to me. "Been there, done that, have the beautifully-cut designer T shirt".
I think much the same of French politics. Yes, Macron is in trouble again. Yes, French politics is a mess, with political parties from Communist and virulent anarchist Left to Le Pen's Far Right, end even a few Far Righter than her! Yes, Barnier's government has just collapsed and Macron is desperately hunting for a new PM, or fall guy if you'd prefer.
But this is nothing like American politics. In France, there is proportional representation so any law has to get approval by a majority, with at least 50% objecting to everything. That applies to Macron, but also to Le Pen or Melenchon's far Left. It is that friction, that immovability, that makes France ultimately sane in its centrist path of true representation of the people.
I will also mention that unlike in America, France's huge civil service is set up to run the country whatever the politicians get up to. Their budget is permanent, their roles are apolitical, and their powerful unions make them politically untouchable. This structure is not unusual in Europe, and I will mention that Belgium recently managed 18 months with no government at all, and hardly anyone noticed!
As for Notre Dame..... whatever happens with Macron, I will praise him for his determination and ultimate success in driving forward the restoration and resurrection of Notre Dame, and refusing those that wanted to modernise it, or do it up on the cheap. It has been a remarkable example of harnessing excellent traditional skills from across the country, with exceptional management and historical integrity to bring this incredibly complex project in on time. Few other countries and governments could have managed such an amazing feat, and the French should be very proud. Even as the French on the streets publicly whinge about it!
I am very content to live in France, a genuinely sane and civilised country that often seems embarrassed by it. Probably the safest country in the World right now. And that's why I live here!
i agree with much of what you say here, except your very optimistic forecast for france's political future. the country is facing a potentially greece-level economic disaster, which requires immediate legislative action. they can't cruise à la belge here. and the populist dogs are really at the door. i don't know who is on any centrist bench who can rally enough french people to block the fascists this time. granted there's an eternity between now and the next election, but as things are lined up now, do not count at all on the center holding.
I doubt the centre will hold, and when Macron goes, the next President will be either more Left or more Right, not centre.
But whomever wins a majority still needs to carry enough of the others to pass any laws. Not easy.
The French system is pretty resilient and this is the 5th Republic - many of the faults you see in the American 1st Republic have been resolved over the decades. I may turn out to be wrong, but I suspect the French system of checks and balances, the lower levels of corruption, and the enduring belief in 'public service' that still seems normal in French politics, will endure. Even if Le Pen stays out of jail and gets to lead for a while.
The biggest issue, to me, is the economic action required to keep the country in the EU. Nobody has the politic skills to sell that to the French people.
France IS the EU now that Germany is in recession and has so declined economically and politically.. And Germany can't recover because of its energy situation, and its proximity and vulnerability to the Ukraine war, which is making investors nervous.
I think Brexit was a wake up call to the French, and I really doubt even Le Pen believes she could win a referendum to take France out of the EU. If anything, Le Pen would probably prefer to stay in the EU and build a Right wing power block with Italy too.
I also wonder if Trump's win in America will, like Brexit in Britain, scare the French away from the Far Right. I hope so.
there is no way to stay in the EU without brutal austerity measures. those are simply the facts. and with bad faith populists constantly lying to voters, the french people have incentive to keep deluding themselves even as they face consequences for budgetary indiscipline. foreign investment here? not great. better under macron than before but either far left or far right will likely dismantle what he's done. neither of the extremes has anything remotely plausible to offer, but voters are too irrational these days to put much stock in plausible.
I agree with much of what you say. Here's my take on all this:
All countries now have debt crises because of the crash of 2009, and the terrible mistake of the supposedly 'short term' fix of QE, and then more of the same for a decade, and then MUCH more during Covid. Once the interest rates returned to a more normal 5% it was obvious then all those countries would also have a debt and repayment crisis.
But also there is the long expected (by me at least) crisis of EROEI for energy, that makes fossil fuels less effective in running any of these thirsty and addicted Western economies, at the same time as fossil fuels and energy was diverted into investment into renewables, a major structural shift that will starve investment in everything else for decades. When we add in the increasing costs of the climate damage in each country, and an ageing population used to the good life, then altogether we of course see a debt crisis, a lack of investment, real wages in decline and increasingly disappointed and angry voters.
All the EU countries are in this position, some worse than others, so all have breached the 3% debt limits and no one would ever consider driving out France - it would be the end of the EU.
What is the solution? Things will go on as they are until a major crisis bursts the Everything Bubbles. I suspect that is exactly what Trump plans to do on January 20th or soon after, when his rich friends with the inside nod will know exactly when to short everything on the way down, and buy up everything at 10 cents on the dollar at bottom. I suspect they will do that in Europe and Asia too, and maybe even in China.
That would crash the French economy too. It is inevitable, sooner of later. But here is the thing; France's fundamentals of energy (70% nuclear, 15% hydro etc) and net surplus of food production, and big fishing industry, and nuclear electric powered high speed trains, and the fact that all European road transport crosses France on toll roads, and thousands of small farmers and businesses with practical skilled workforce and products, etc, all mean resilience, solid income and a more grounded recovery.
I hope!
in 2023, only 11 member states were out of compliance with the growth and stability pact. italy was the worst, along with romania, malta, and a few others. france is right in there though and i can't see it getting any special grace. yes france has those fundamentals you rightly mention, and they're comforting if we're looking at end times scenarios. but they don't matter much until it's france for itself. ie frexit. (and then omg the workforce is going to have to go squid game to compete, compared to how it is now.)
I think some of those other states are hiding their true figures - no country has avoided high debts, not least because of Covid, and no country can avoid the impact of more normal interest rates after a decade of free money.
It may well be that voters in France need a period of brutal education into reality by a period of chaotic rule by the Left or the Right. I recall the first time I lived in France in the late 1980's when Le Pen meant Jean Marie Le Pan, father of Marine, a far right wannabe demagogue with all the rough edges in place, who came too close to winning the Presidency and was rebuffed by a shocked government that conspired to keep him out.
At the time, I lived in Nice on the French Riviera, where the mayor was Jacques Médecin, another far Right and deeply corrupt guy who eventually ran off to Uruguay with Nice's Finance Secretary (a beautiful lady hired by Médecin!) to avoid their arrest for embezzlement. He used to phone all his friends in Nice from Uruguay, who would gather every Friday evening in a local cafe to hear and speak with him, and a couple of Mafia bigwigs would sometimes make an appearance. He was later extradited back to France for trial and imprisonment. On the other hand, he wrote a very good cookbook on Provençal and Niçoise cuisine, so he can't have been all bad! 🙂
But what I am saying is that French politics has always been like this - moments of purpose and apparent clarity, followed by long periods of chaos and crisis. The only good thing is that it isn't as bad as Italy, although now at least people can't say it's not as good as Germany! Here below is the best analysis I have seen of the national French situation by Claire Berlinski, and I agree with every aspect of it.
As for the ultimate crisis scenario, I think it is inevitable and the only question is when. In fact, from a personal point of view, even that last question is refined to "in my lifetime" or "after my lifetime", and even that question has ramifications that mean I am not sure which I'd prefer! 😂
All that said, I will repeat that I think this is ultimately the safest Westernised country (for someone that looks European) to live in during the coming crises, because of those fundamentals. I'm betting my life on it, and would probably do so even if I was 20 years old again.
https://open.substack.com/pub/claireberlinski/p/no-confidence-no-exit?r=44ehru&utm_medium=ios
i agree with her read 100%. i wish she proposed some kind of scenario for the way forward, but i think no one is capable of that right now. i fear what's changed compared to past political crises is the information environment is so polluted thanks to social media and the rise of right wing propaganda networks that the populace--the ultimate arbiter of the future in any democracy--has become completely dysfunctional. i think this is a big difference from past eras. it's very hard to put faith in the ultimate rationality of voters right now. they're not as bad off as america (yet) but the saying that france is merely 10 years late to whatever happens in america may be true once again. if so, buckle up.
The people matter, not a place, though having experienced Notre Dame albeit as an outsider I treasure its art. The shape, the sculpture, the reminder it is of a past.. unlike many popular expressed views, when I visited I was delighted with the Parisians I met.
I found the interior severely oppressive, likely the result of having had a teacher of European history that spared no one..and the moaning shadows that hung in the church when I entered it.
i’m looking forward to seeing its new insides. i have always really loved that building. it is so imposing but architecturally it doesn’t waste the time that it takes.
I’m curious too. Back when I was there I was moved only by the Pietà- otherwise felt the medieval burden on my shoulders..
Bravo 👏